‘Ello ladles and jellyspoons! This is going to be a big long article discussing a bunch of different (however interrelated) topics so strap in and gather around as I act like I know what I’m talking about 😛
Recently I’ve been asked a couple different questions that were difficult to answer. This was because it required that I first define what it is exactly that I’m being asked to answer. There are many dimensions and varying degrees to certain terms like “investment” and “spec”.
The first I will address is investment because it’s definition varies from person to person as well as their motives behind them. One person’s idea of an investment might be to go down to their local bank, apply for a 20,000$ personal loan, and then buy every copy of Lotus Petal from Tempest they can. Once that’s accomplished they jack up the price and put the market in a monopolized choke hold with intention of selling them off to make a killing on them. Other people might focus on buying a few .25¢ cards and forgetting about them until some rainy day (maybe years later) when they jump up to 2.00$ or 3.00$ each and then sell them off for a 20$ come-up to then treat themselves to sushi for lunch that week. Some people do this for a fun little hobby and they aren’t expecting to pay rent with this 20$ profit. Some people get their kicks from checking the daily stock report seeing that a card jumped from 1$ to 3$ and immediately running down to their LGS to raid the dollar rare binders… Other people like Rudy from Alpha Investments fills his garage with thousands of dollars of MTG product and sells them 2-3 years later after they appreciate in value. For some people it just a fun hobby and other’s are looking to make their mortgage payment with it. Me personally, I don’t really invest honestly. I buy what I need for Modern mostly. I keep any eye on the market obviously and cash in on cards when they spike to insane price levels (e.g. Manamorphose and Leyline of the Void when they did).
Secondly is specs. Another term that one needs to consider other people’s POV when they discuss their specs. Is this person an investor intending to buy 200x copies of this card to sit on and flip? Is this person a player who will just buy their playset because they have a hunch the card will be good? What format does this person play? Modern, Legacy, Pioneer, or Standard? Because a card might look bomb for Standard and very well is but as we often see it usually isn’t good enough to make the cut in Modern. This will generate an “OMG BEST CARD EVER!” and a “meh” response out of two different people assessing the same card. So again financial motive and the player’s intended application play a roll in how people spec on cards.
History lesson: Alright this is super important to understand because of how it impacts the supply and demand dynamic we see today. ***DO NOT QUOTE ME ON THIS*** I’m drawing an article I read a while ago and can’t recall the exact numbers or find the article again to site the source so take what you are about to read with a grain of salt. But the principle still applies. So long long ago in a galaxy far far away there was a company called Wizards of the Coast that made a trading card game. The game was a huge success they were selling lots and lots of cards and everything was hunky dory until one day during around Shards of Alara era (like I said don’t quote me on this) they sold out of booster boxes during Standard. There were just so many people playing Magic at that time that game stores couldn’t buy boxes from WotC because WotC simply ran out! So I don’t have the exact number of boxes printed during each set nor the number of players playing the game leading up to this pivotal point in time but what is important is the convergence of supply and demand.
Let’s say WotC was printing 300,000 boxes (just for sake of the example) for each new set that came out prior to Shards of Alara. This model had been working fine with no problems and up until this point, the supply met the demand of the player base. But Wizards wasn’t monitoring it’s growing player base and wasn’t increasing supply accordingly resulting in the “sorry we’re sold out 🤷🏻♀️” fiasco (as seen on the graph with arrows). This caused Wizards to go, “Oh crap!” and they essentially tripled their production numbers (let’s just say 1x million boxes) to ensure that they would never ever sell out of booster boxes during a Standard season again. This is the model we have now, one where they print like 3x more than what we need based on the calculated player base to ensure that they never run out of boxes to sell.
“Whoopty doo! What does it all mean Basil?” The best way for me to explain what this means is via example: The year is 2015 and I thought I was a next level IQ 1000 genius for buying Thoughtseizes for 20$ each and Wilt-Leaf Lieges for 5$. Well, I thought by looking at the price of the Shadowmoor printing for Wilt-Leaf being 30$ prior to MM2’s release that all I had to do was sit on them and it was a matter of time before they become a 30$ card again and I would sell them for 25$ profit each.
Haha… Nice try bud. Well for one, this particular dynamic is one where a card with a single printing from an older set like the Lorwyn that has reached a substantially high price with very little demand tanks super hard after it receives a reprint and usually returns to about 10%-25% of its original value (both versions can be had for about 3$ each now). Same thing happened to Daybreak Cornet when it got a reprint because it was only played in one deck and had one old printing.
Now with Thoughtseize and when it got reprinted in Theros the price tanked even harder. Here again, looking at the previous price of the Lorwyn printing being as much as 60$ at one point I thought I was Einstein and by buying them then for 20$ each I was bound to either double or triple my money. I watched as my Theros copies of Thoughtseize dipped down to 10$ each. What? Why?!? IT’S THOUGHTSEIZE! Possibly the single most powerful one mana discard spell ever printed, played in almost every format imaginable, and was 60$ at one point! How can this be?!? Despite all these factors being true one thing I didn’t understand at the time was how the basic fundamental principle of supply and demand applies differently now then when it did back then. Even though there is still a crap ton of demand for good ol’ Thoughtseize, I failed to realize how much surplus supply saturated the market due to it being reprinted in Theros (remember WotC prints 3x more boxes of Standard sets now then when they did back in Lorwyn…). Since then Thoughtseize has made a comeback thanks to Pioneer and I cherish those same exact Theros Thoughseizes I bought years ago.
So even now, if Wizards were to unveil a card today that is Thoughtseize power level in a Standard set (100% instant Vintage, Legacy, Modern, and Pioneer playable) it will have difficulty exceeding 20$ bucks because there is just so many damn boxes of the stuff being opened today. Look at Monastery Swiftspear and Soul-Scar Mage, both are played in Modern and Pioneer right now (even a little Legacy) and they can both be had for under 5$. Now it is worth mentioning that rarity does effects this degree. Swiftspear is only 2.50$ and it’s an uncommon with three different printings and Soul-Scar only has one printing and it’s a rare. Or look at Fatal push. It only has one printing, sees play in every format, and is from a set no longer in print. If this card was printed 15 years ago they would be well over 20$ each but because it was printed under the new abundant model it hasn’t hit a critical point yet. It has all the makings of a high demand expensive uncommon but the supply from Aether Revolt hasn’t started to dry up yet. It might be 6+ years until we see that happen. Now mythic rares do make an exception and they can obtain ridiculously high prices like Snapcaster Mage (printed during Innistrad, one of the most heavily opened sets of all time). Before says anything about Tarmogoyf, this ‘rule of thumb’ still holds true and applies to it. Printed during Future Sight (lower print run era) and only printed in masters sets after that (boxes where no where near opened as much as your average Standard set) is why we kept seeing Goyf hold down a 100$ price tag reprint after reprint. The first couple masters sets were just simply not enough for the +*/+1 beat stick from Future Sight to come down in price.
How I personally spec/evaluate cards:
Let me first say I’m by no means an expert on this subject. In fact I’ve been flat out wrong in the past (see Arclight Phoenix) and other times I couldn’t be more right (see Hazoret). But that’s the part of speculating, it’s a gamble, it’s based on a hunch, it’s derived from personal experience, and lessons from the past mostly. Let’s take a look at some examples:
[scryimg] wrenn and six [/scryimg]
By now we are all familiar with ren6. A pretty good sign that a planeswalker is Modern, Legacy, or Pioneer playable is if it costs 3x mana (see Liliana of the Veil and the recently retired Oko). In competitive Magic we’re always trying to be as mana efficient as possible and when a planeswalker costs only 2x mana that’s something to get excited about. Based on lessons from the past (see Tibalt) the bar for 2x mana planewalkers has been set pretty low and we can’t expect too much for only 2x mana. Well ren6 subtly defies that. It’s pseudo card advantage when paired with fetch lands over and over and it pings turn 1 strategy enablers. Those two abilities alone are really strong in eternal formats. If you ever ult him you have probably already won without it. From a financial perspective notice that it’s a mythic rare from a non-Standard set so it will be in low supply. My best guess when I first saw the card was that, if it was a huge success, it would be similar to Liliana of the Veil and demand about an 80$-90$ price tag eventually. It had the right ingredients.
[scryimg] Klothys, God of Destiny [/scryimg] [scryimg] deathrite shaman [/scryimg]
Like I was saying, I draw upon lessons and examples from the past that we know are already good. Sure DRS comes down turn 1 and can start blocking 1/X’s but it is vulnerable to common removal (Bolt, Path, Push, etc.). DRS exiles land cards and ramps you turn 2. He also exiles non-land cards and can deal 2 damage or gain you 2 life. Klothys although a little more expensive doesn’t die to Bolt, Push, and if it’s not a creature can’t be Pathed. It doesn’t require mana to utilize it’s ability. It can either ramp you by exiling a land card or deal 2 damage and gain you 2 life by exiling a non-land card. It’s abilities are almost nearly identical but it’s card type, ability timing restrictions, and casting cost has it’s trade offs. How much Klothys will be worth? At least what DRS cost before Pioneer was announced and that was 3-4$ setting the rock bottom sees zero play floor. Depending on how successful it is, I could see it being a 20-30$ card easy.
[scryimg] Vraskas contempt [/scryimg] [scryimg] eat to extinction [/scryimg]
Why make it harder than it needs to be? Luckily Wizards made this one pretty simple for us. Essentially the same card intended for Standard with a similar role as last time. Vraska’s Contempt hit 20$ each during it’s peak in Standard and Eat to Extinction is only 2$ right now. Even if the card only jumps to 5$ due to Standard demand wouldn’t you rather have spent 8$ vs. 20$ to get a set after you realize you need them? I don’t have a crystal ball, I just look at lessons from the past.
[scryimg] tectonic giant [/scryimg] [scryimg] thunderbreak regent [/scryimg]
First thing I think is: Thunderbreak Regent. Next I ask my self: “How successful was Thunderbreak Regent in Standard? Was it good enough to see play in eternal formats post rotation? How much was it during Standard?” For those of you who didn’t play Standard during original Theros I can tell you T-break Regent saw play in a slew of strategies such as RDW, Jund, Rakdos Control, UR w/ Keranos, and Jeskai w/ Mantis Rider. It was 6-10$ later dropping to 2-4$ during it’s time in Standard thus I would use that example as a baseline for what I’d expect Tectonic Giant to garnish. Sure the Geodude doesn’t fly but it’s close enough for me to draw a comparison from. Bonecrusher Giant is following a similar path: a 4-5 $ start and now 2-3$ right now on TCGplayer.
[scryimg] Underworld Breach [/scryimg]
Underworld Breach looks a lot like Yawgmoth’s Will or Past in Flames in terms of function. What else it reminds me of is Fires of Invention and As Foretold, both of these were cards when they were first spoiled looked like they could do some degenerate broken things if built around correctly. In As Foretold’s case there was a lot of hype, the price dropped as people were unable to do anything with the card until there were a few flash in the pan decks like Blue Living End and Mono Blue Taking Turns that put up 5-0 finishes and brought attention to the card creating demand for it causing the price to rise. Underworld Breach has all the makings of a broken and degenerate card but until someone discovers and creates a deck that busts it, the price will steadily decline until then.
[scryimg] nyxbloom ancient [/scryimg]
Lastly, Nyxbloom Ancient. This card reminds me of Alhammarret’s Archive and Immortal Sun. They don’t have the same abilities as each otherbut they are basically “win more” cards. All three are geared towards commander I feel like. No one is playing or has ever played these cards during Standard. Nyxbloom is currently 13$ (and was 17$ when I first started writing this article) because of hype. I expect to to fall to 10$ like Archive and Sun did because no one is playing them in Standard and the only demand for them will be from Commander. It’s a mythic rare (and undeniably powerful one at that) so it shouldn’t fall any further than 10$. Yeah sure, the Sun and Archive are colorless and have more universal utility but still it’s the closest thing I can draw upon for comparisons. With Nyxbloom Ancient I’m just going off of the vibe the card gives me. It feels like another Sun or Archive type card for Commander.
MythicSpoilers and the thesaurus on the left hand side below the card is a great resource that I use all the time (even if I think the thesaurus is on crack or trolling me sometimes…).
Oh! P.S. I’ve said it once, I’ve said it twice, I’ve said it a thousand times. FREE SPELLS ARE GOOD! Phyrexian mana, alternative casting costs like delve, the cycle of “Force of X” cards from Modern Horizons (except the red one), and recently Once Upon a Time are always going to be valuable at some point in time if they are not already. Also, any time you are generating mana or drawing cards broken things are bound to happen.
Well there you have it folks. This is and was by no means an all encompassing and comprehensive list that goes into human nature and their spending habits towards a luxury hobby like Magic. But, it’s at least a good little look into the world of card prices, specs, and market dynamics. Thanks for putting up with my sporadic narration and self-amusing tone. Any questions, feel free to message me on Facebook! Cheers.
